Ducati News Today

A recent analysis by an Italian blog claims that the data shows unequivocally that Casey Stoner did a better job for Ducati than mega star new hire Valentino Rossi has managed so far in 2011. They have all the numbers to prove it but what do the numbers really say?

Casey Stoner and Valentino Rossi fans have come out swinging at each other from almost the very first race of the season. Aggrieved at the perception of poor treatment by Ducati, #27 fans are wallowing in Casey’s commanding performance this year on the Honda. By contrast, Vale fans point to the lack of development of the Ducati during the Stoner years for the current predicament he finds himself in, riding a bike that is simply not competitive with the Yamaha, let alone the Honda.

Surely a look at the actual race data would be instructional? Let’s see. Motorcycle racing blog GPOne makes it fairly clear what it thinks the data shows with the title ‘Stoner better with Ducati than Rossi’. Their analysis is interesting comparing best lap times, total race times along with distance to the race winner for both fastest lap and total race time. Here is how the data is relayed starting with fastest laps:-

In a head to head comparison of their best race laps, Valentino failed to improve on Casey’s times at Qatar, Barcelona, Assen and Laguna; and only on three occasions was his fastest lap closer to that of the race winner than Casey’s: at Estoril, Le Mans and Mugello.

When the analysis turns to time to complete a full race distance, the story appears to be the same.

This impression is then confirmed when looking at times over a complete race distance, where Rossi has been consistently further from the leader than Stoner was in 2010. At Laguna Seca and Brno he was flat out slower than Stoner had been, while their results were most evenly matched at Barcelona, where the Italian was just around a half second quicker.

A closer look at the data though suggests that the purported open and shut case may not in fact exist at all. It is challenging enough to try and compare Rossi and Stoner on their Ducati Desmosedici performance but another altogether to claim that Rossi finishing further behind the race winner in 2011 than Stoner did in 2010 has much significance.

After all in 2011 we have 4 factory Honda’s piloted by two aliens (Stoner and Pedrosa) in addition to alien in waiting Ben Spies moving up from a satellite Yamaha to the factory version. Far too many things have changed to make the analysis meaningful.

What if we use the data to try and support or refute the notion that only Stoner could race the Ducati to its ultimate potential? What has the very same data to say to this? It turns out quite a lot.

Out of the 10 rounds that GPOne has comparative data for, Valentino Rossi posted a best lap faster than Casey Stoner on 6 occasions, so just over half the time. We all know that races aren’t won on just a single lap so more critical is the total race time. Here the data refutes the view that some espouse that Rossi is coasting.

9 times out of 10 Rossi completed race distance this season on the Ducati faster than Stoner managed last season. Of these, Rossi was gifted the award 4 times since Stoner crashed out and the remaining 5 he simply went faster.

However even this is flawed. How best to compare the potential of the GP10 as raced by Stoner with the GP11 and now GP11.1 raced by Vale? What about any differences in the tires for each round that Bridgestone provided? What about the track temperature? The truth is you can’t conclude much from this data other than that Rossi is probably trying just as hard for Ducati as Stoner was. And perhaps that if Stoner did go faster than Rossi is managing at a given MotoGP, he tried harder than was prudent and crashed, something Rossi is either unwilling or unable to do.

Of course, the Aragon round in 2010 was a turning point for Casey as he won his first race for Ducati in 2010 and went on to win twice more. Only the most diehard fan would expect that Rossi will do the same. He may, however, end up with about the same number of points by seasons end if he avoids even a single DNF. Either way, neither performance is what Ducati or its racers wanted or want.

The bottom line is pretty simple. The 2011 season is further proof that when you put one of the 4 best riders in the world on a superior motorcycle package and they stay fit, they pretty much run away with the season. That is clearly the case for Casey Stoner and Honda in 2011, just as it was for the same man and Ducati in 2007.

Source: GPOne

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