Stoner Struggles, Rossi Crashes, Ducati to Pounce?
There is no denying that the start of the 2010 MotoGP Championship has had its ups and downs. It started in Losail with Casey Stoner crashing out of the lead, Lorenzo winning 2 races on the trot for the first time and Valentino Rossi crashing in Mugello and ruling himself out of contention for this year’s title with a broken leg. Against all this has been the backdrop of who will ride what in 2011 as the contracts of all 4 aliens (the aforementioned plus Dani Pedrosa) expire this year. How has the roller coaster year so far affected the predictions?
If you wanted further proof that things are not going as expected at Marlboro Ducati, you only need to look at the points table. Pre-season favorite for many, Casey Stoner, sits just 8th in the points table and his teammate, Nicky Hayden, who struggled so mightily on the Ducati is 5th beating his teammate to the flag in the only race this year they have both finished!
Meanwhile over at Fiat Yamaha, Jorge Lorenzo is showing himself to be a real threat for the title this year finishing no worse than 2nd in the first four races of the year. This may become a foregone conclusion now that Rossi is out for months and thus won’t play a major role in the outcome of the title this year. Despite dwindling grids and a much better racing spectacle in the fully subscribed (but slow) Moto2 class, this year has given us 3 different MotoGP race winners in just 4 races, notably none of them Ducati mounted!
The silly season rumor mill of who will ride what next year, started in earnest even before last year’s series was finished! It all revolves around one question. What will Valentino do in 2011? However to get to the answer is not that straight forward. All four aliens have contracts that expire this year and so it is possible for some significant seat shuffling to occur.
Rossi is the master of double speak so he has alternated between saying he is happy with Yamaha to indicating he might seriously entertain a Ducati ride. For its part, Ducati has on occasion openly acknowledged the possibility of Rossi racing red while appearing to reorganize the MotoGP team in a way that is more Rossi friendly. As an example, Livio Suppo is now out of the Ducati team, replaced by Vittoriano Guareschi in the role of Team Manager. Rossi is a close friend of Vito’s brother, Gianfranco Guareschi, (Gianfanco was on hand during Valentino’s bizarre 2009 home pre-season accident).
Of course for Rossi to join Ducati, there needs to be a spot. Currently the number one place is taken by Casey Stoner who upset the company and Marlboro no end with his 3 race hiatus last season for what now appears to be related to lactose intolerance. Stoner has a good relationship with Livio Suppo, his former team manager who is now at HRC, so it makes sense that the rumor mill is predicting Stoner to Honda for 2011. Casey took the title for Ducati in 2007 and finished the season strongly after his return last year but seems disillusioned with the GP10 this year with his spate of front end crashes.
So it would appear likely Ducati will want a new number one rider. But why would Rossi leave Yamaha? Two words. Jorge Lorenzo. The young Spaniard looks the heir apparent and Yamaha will not be able to retain both stars in 2011 with the salary level that Lorenzo will be able to command if he wins the title this year. As much as Yamaha want to hold on to Vale, he is in the twilight of his career, more race victories and even titles to come for sure, but Lorenzo is the future and Yamaha know it.
So does Valentino. He also has an intense awareness of his place in history. He is the only rider likely to be able to supplant Giacomo Agostini as the winningest GP rider with 122 victories. Rossi currently has 104 victories, of those still racing the next winningest is Dani Pedrosa on 32.
Ducati News Today believes Rossi will end his career on a Ducati in a bid to supplant Ago as the GOAT (Greatest of all time) by taking more GP wins (he would need 19 more victories) and more premier championship titles (he would need 2 more) and finish his career on an Italian machine
It doesn’t surprise then to hear more rumors that Ducati is preparing to go all out to secure Rossi’s services for 2011. With their star rider likely gone it makes perfect sense. And in a bizarre kind of way, Rossi’s crash means it is more likely Yamaha will focus on Lorenzo and make the Rossi decision easier all around. It also paves the way for Ben Spies to migrate from Tech 3 to a factory ride next year
A key question remains. What will happen to Pedrosa. There are 4 aliens but only 3 factories. Our guess is he ends up staying at Honda either as Stoner’s teammate or on a Gresini machine with factory equipment. The USA is a critical market for Ducati, so there is no reason to move aside Hayden if he keeps improving and of course Hayden and Rossi have been teammates before at Honda.
We should have all this sorted out by the US GP at Indianapolis in August. Around that time last year, Yamaha re-signed Lorenzo (after rumors of him considering Ducati) and Ducati re-signed Hayden.
Let’s let Vale himself have the last word.
“I haven’t decided yet about my future, I will decide in the next year. I have a contract signed already with Yamaha (for 2010). For sure it is a great dream for everybody, to see Valentino with Ducati. We will see, I don’t know.”
link: MotoGP.com
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