Haga vs. Spies: To the Winner the Spoils
For the majority of this 2009 World Superbike season, Xerox Ducati’s Noriyuki Haga has led the Championship despite the best efforts of rookie sensation and MotoGP bound, Ben Spies. The American has won half of the races so far but finds himself with a 10 point deficit to Haga with the final showdown in Portimao, Portugal only days away. What will it take for Haga to prevail and take the top spot in the series after previously finishing 2nd or 3rd 6 times since 2000? And will the 5 points his teammate, Michel Fabrizio, took off him in Imola turn out to be crucial in the final analysis?
In taking the win at Imola, Michel Fabrizio did more than simply deprive his teammate of 5 championship points, he changed the dynamics of what is required during the final two races of the season this weekend at Portimao. If Fabrizio had allowed his teammate to take the win then Noriyuki Haga would need only finish 2nd and 3rd in the two races even if Ben Spies were to win them both. It would have put Nitro Nori in a very strong position to take the title. However, Haga has made it clear that he doesn’t need any help from his teammate saying ‘You either win races or you don’t’ as the interview below makes very clear.
The reality is that two wins for Spies will seal the championship for him since even if Haga finished right behind him both times to end up tied on points, Spies would be crowned champion by virtue of his greater number of victories this season.
For all his speed this year, Spies has been plagued by a combination of bad luck, apparent failings of his team, a couple of mistakes and being taken out by Fabrizio at Brno. For his part, Haga has led the championship almost all the way through, despite his crash and subsequent injuries at Donington, a bizarre bird strike incident at Monza and being taken out by an overenthusiastic Jonathan Rea at the Nürburgring.
The balance of probabilities runs like this:-
To be assured victory irrespective of what else happens, Spies must win both races- something he hasn’t done since Haga crashed out at Donington some 4 rounds ago. And the last time Spies doubled when Haga finished both races? - Way back in May at his home circuit at Miller Motorsports Park where Haga suffered a massive high-side in practice.
For Haga it runs something like this. To be assured of victory, irrespective of what else happens, Nori-san must win one race and finish no lower than 5th in the second. After a 10 race victory-less drought brought on at least in part by injury, Haga has scored a win and a second in the the last two rounds so is tracking at the form level he needs to take the title. In terms of strategy, Haga needs to push for the win in the first race which would then allow him to take it much easier in the second race.
What role his team-mate Fabrizio might play is less clear. Michel had committed to helping Haga before Imola once his own title chances evaporated and has reaffirmed his intentions in recent days.
“At Imola I’m going to go on fighting my own battle, and then we’ll see how Nori and I are placed… I’ll perhaps change my strategy for the last two races, if need be, in order to assist Nori,” he stated.
link: Crash.Net
“I’ve very happy with how my season’s gone and I would like to finish the year with two more podiums. I’m feeling confident and am reassured that the third position that I hold in the standings can’t be taken from me as fourth place Max is too far behind to catch up now. I hope Noriyuki can take the title for Ducati and I’ll be backing him all the way this weekend.”
link: Crash.Net
To do so he would need to either deny Spies a win if Haga is not able to get to the front or get in between Haga and Spies if Haga is ahead. Michel had a bad run last time out, even apologizing for his fall at Magny-Cours, but should be more competitive at Portimao.
Spies has secured his future in MotoGP (he will ride a Yamaha M1 in the Tech3 squad next year) but would sorely like to win the title for himself and his team.
“I can’t wait to get to the circuit and get set up for Sunday’s races…My focus is completely on going for two race wins on Sunday, I would love to be able to deliver the title for the team as they really deserve it and have worked so hard to make it possible. We do go well on the Portimao circuit, so I’m going to give it everything I’ve got to challenge Nori for the wins.”
link: Crash.Net
Haga senses he has the possibility to make history for himself and his nation (Japan has not had a World Superbike Champion).
“Last year at Portimao didn’t go to plan; I had some bad luck. This year I am in a better position and now everything comes down to this last event. My strategy won’t be any different from normal; I always go out with the aim to win and I always give 100%. I’ve finished second or third in the last five editions of the Superbike championship and so all I am missing is the title win, a title I hope to be able to bring home to Ducati and to Japan this weekend.”
link: WorldSBK.com
Whatever happens it is going to be a couple of nail biting must watch races in a similar vein to the 2002 Imola Bayliss versus Edwards final round showdown. We know the Ducati runs well at Portimao, Bayliss took the double last year. May the best man win!
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This is going to be a great race, either way.
If Haga wins, we get another win in the champtionship column for Ducati. If Spies wins, we get a new American WSB champ! That hasn’t happened since 2002 when Colin Edwards beat Bayliss(?) for the championship.
@Don, I’ve always liked Haga right back from the YZF days when he spoke almost no English. I remember at Phillip Island Haga talking about a bad race 1 and a much better race 2, he told the interviewer ‘First race complete shit, second much better!’