Is Hayden’s Improvement on the Ducati for Real?
Nicky Hayden had his best finish of the year at this year’s 2009 US MotoGP at Laguna Seca taking 5th place a mere 22 seconds behind race winner Honda’s Dani Pedrosa. Hayden looked his characteristic self after the race with his beaming Kentucky boy smile in full effect. Has Nicky finally turned a corner that will allow him to race the Ducati competitively for the rest of the season or is his latest result simply the result of an extra home track effort?
Nicky has always raced well at Laguna Seca. In fact he has always raced well at home. 2 of his 3 race wins occurred at Laguna Seca. His victory in 2005 during the return of the circuit to the MotoGP calendar was the first time he ever stepped onto the top of the MotoGP podium and he repeated it in 2006 in his Championship year. Last year on the factory Honda, Hayden took 2nd in the inaugural running of the USGP at Indianapolis in atrocious conditions, his best result of a pretty poor year that saw him on the podium only one other time. He finished 5th last year at Laguna Seca and failed to finish in 2007.
Hayden’s Laguna result follows a solid 8th at Assen another circuit he likes and traditionally does well at. He took 4th in 2005 and won the following year after a race long duel with Colin Edwards that saw the Texan crash out of the lead on the last turn of the last lap. He was 3rd in 2007 and 4th in 2008.
Results this year at both Laguna Seca and Assen were complicated by crashes, penalties and DNS’s. At Assen the 2 factory Honda’s crashed out early and Ducati satellite MotoGP rookie, Mika Kallio went out on the last lap whilst running 5th whilst Tony Elias was penalized 20 seconds for using the run-off on the final lap. At Laguna Seca, Mika Kallio didn’t start (courtesy of his Assen crash) and there were 5 DNF’s meaning that only 12 bikes finished.
None of this really matters. The results are what they are even if it is likely that Hayden’s final position would have been lower in the order if not for the carnage. What is more interesting however, is how far behind the race winner Nicky was in the races. If he and the customization of the Ducati to his liking are yielding improvements then we should see him closer behind the race winner.
Indeed at Laguna Seca this was the case with Nicky’s 5th place being just 22 seconds behind winner Pedrosa, a marked improvement from being 40 seconds behind for 8th place in Assen just the week before. Unfortunately at Catalunya where he finished 10th, he was just 34 seconds behind Rossi. Catalunya was where Nicky declared progress after testing in Mugello with radically altered settings seemed to be helping, after tester Vittoriano Guareschi and even 3 time World Champion, Troy Bayliss lent a hand. The margin behind the race winner in Barcelona was indeed an improvement from the past. The previous race in Mugello had seen Hayden 39 seconds behind in conditions that featured bike changes due to the weather just as in the prior race in France.
What does it all mean? Well for one thing the recent progression of race finishes for Hayden – 12th, 10th, 8th, 5th doesn’t tell the whole story. Secondly, Hayden truly was closer to the race winner at Laguna Seca than he has been all year. However this could well be the result of an extra effort at his home race rather than a sign that true progress has been made on the Ducati for the rest of the season. The evidence for this is his historical strong record at the track and his comparatively poor showing at another one of his favorites, Assen, where he finished further behind the winner than he had at the previous race in Catalunya despite radical changes to his bike that were send to be improvements.
Nicky, we’re all rooting for you, but it is just too soon to reveal the “mission accomplished” banner yet. The German GP at Sachsenring on July 19th will be illuminating.
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Interesting insight – he seems to be making progress. I think Laguna flattered him a little though.
Another interesting take on this would be to chart his qualifying and finishing position in relation to Stoner and the other Ducatis – is he pulling away from Kallio and Canepa and closing the gap on Stoner? That would be real progress.
Thanks for your comments Rob. Kallio has been riding better than his results look. He almost finished 5th at Assen (fell off on last lap) but like many MotoGP rookies struggles with consistency and crashing. The bottom-line for Nicky is that if his Laguna performance was a one off for the home race (as can be pretty strongly argued based on his prior performances there) then the data shows he is not in fact making progress or not much.